Influenza (Flu) by almost any measure represents the greatest risk of a pandemic that could kill millions of people in an outbreak. The strain of flu virus that may cause a pandemic outbreak cannot be predicted with certainty. There was no vaccine for the 2009 Swine Flu (H1N1). The 2009 seasonal flu was resistant to Tamiflu, the leading antiviral. Marie-Paule Kiely, WHO vaccine research director, has said that it is "almost a given" that the new swine flu strain would undergo reassortment with resistant seasonal flu viruses and acquire resistance, but it is not yet known at what level resistance will appear.

The H5N1 influenza strain that causes bird flu is extremely lethal when passed from birds to humans. H5N1 has not yet been transmitted between humans but we cannot predict what mutation will enable human transmission. Thus, we cannot feel secure that any vaccine or currently existing antiviral directed against existing flu strains will be effective against bird flu.

In addition, there is the threat of highly lethal viruses like SARS and Ebola, or mutations of these viruses, emerging and causing an uncontrolled pandemic outbreak. With SARS, we have seen how modern travel can spread these threats worldwide in a very short time. SARS killed relatively few people, but cost China over 18 billion dollars. We currently have no proven treatment for these known and unknown lethal emerging viral threats.

Governments are actively stockpiling potential therapies and medications to counter these potential pandemic threats. These same governments are spending huge amounts of money supporting research and development for new better answers to the vast array of viral threats.

Above: An influenza virus being degraded by specific anti-influenza antibodies.

We currently have no effective treatment for most of these known and unknown lethal emerging viral threats.

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