Drugs that block viruses, called antivirals, represent an almost $20 billion worldwide market that is expected to grow to about $60 billion by 2018. Tamiflu, a marginally effective anti-flu agent has alone had sales in excess of $2 billion a year. Antiviral drug sales for the treatment of HIV in 2008 were about 7.5 billion dollars. The total antiviral market for HCV is expected to grow to $15.5 billion by the year 2018.

In addition, there are several markets for viral infection that are untapped because there are no effective drugs. In 2004 Schering-Plough licensed intranasal pleconaril, a drug in the clinic for the common cold from ViroPharma for $16 million upfront and may pay associated milestones up to an additional $65 million, and as well as royalties on sales of the product, if approved. Dengue Virus infects 50 million people annually worldwide and yet no therapy exists. Causing severe hemorrhagic fever and death in some cases, Dengue has recently moved into the United States with cases occurring in Texas and the potential to spread by mosquito throughout the Southern United States. Similarly, West Nile virus has no treatment, is spreading rapidly, and can cause severe disease and death.

Even with treatments available, these markets are not going away. In fact, they are growing significantly. Eventual resistance of the virus to most of the existing drugs is likely. The need for new antiviral therapies to novel targets is urgent.

Above: The Flu Virus

Eventual resistance of the virus to most of the existing drugs is likely.

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